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OCTOBER 11,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:54 P.M. ET: 

THE NEED TO SMILE – FROM DAILY CALLER:  Newly leaked emails reveal that Hillary Clinton had to be told when to smile while she was speaking.  The emails, hacked from the campaign chairman John Podesta’s Gmail account and published by WikiLeaks Tuesday, reveal that campaign staffers prompted Clinton to smile at certain times while she was preparing for the Democratic primary debates.  “[Smile] My goodness, I was having a lighthearted moment when I said that,” the talking point reads. “Look, my dad was a Republican.”   I'm sure she never had to be told to take the check.

DISGRACEFUL – FROM FOX:   Justice Clarence Thomas marks his 25th anniversary on the Supreme Court this month, and befitting the man, it likely will be a low-key affair.  But while Thomas has broken barriers his entire professional life without seeking the limelight, the 68-year-old justice is being conspicuously ignored by a powerful new showplace for black heritage. The National Museum of African American History and Culture opened last month in Washington – and missing from the four floors of exhibits is any reference to Thomas's personal and judicial legacy, shocking for perhaps the second most powerful black political figure in America, after President Obama...What the museum does have is a prominent display of Anita Hill, who accused Thomas of creating a hostile work environment while her supervisor at a federal agency. She outlined her allegations during Thomas's 1991 confirmation hearings, and the candid discussion rocked the nation.  Pure politics and political correctness.  And the black community will be the loser. 

OUR SOARING ECONOMY – FROM NEWSMAX:    Bankruptcy filings by U.S. businesses soared 38 percent in September from a year earlier in an ominous sign of a weakening economy, says Wolf Richter, editor of the Wolf Street blog.  Last month’s bankruptcies reached 3,072 to bring the year-to-date total to 28,789 and marked the eleventh straight month of increases from 2015, according to data from the American Bankruptcy Institute.  “Rising bankruptcies are an indicator that the ‘credit cycle’ has ended,” Richter says in a commentary about the limits of the Federal Reserve’s ability to help an economic recovery. “The Fed’s policy of easy credit has encouraged businesses to borrow – those that could. But by now, this six-year debt binge has created an ominous debt overhang that is suffocating these businesses as they find themselves, against all promises, mired in an economy that’s nothing like the escape-velocity hype that had emanated from Wall Street, the Fed and the government.”   The new president may have to face a recession, or worse.  Another legacy of the indifferent Obama.

October 11, 2016       Permalink

AND THEY HAVEN'T SEEN ONE DAY OF MILITARY SERVICE – AT 10:52 A.M. ET:  Our dear college students, put upon and abused by a cruel society, are rushing to mental-health systems.  Oh their agony.  Oh their pain.  From The Wall Street Journal: 

On a recent Thursday afternoon at Ohio State University, about 30 students sit in a classroom listening to instructor Kipp Pietrantonio lecture. “Imagine you were just handed your physics test, what would happen?” he asks.

“You sweat,” calls out one student.

“Your heart starts racing,” says a young woman.

“You get jittery,” answers another.

It is a meeting of the twice weekly “Beating Anxiety” workshop” and Dr. Pietrantonio is a clinical psychologist who works at the university’s counseling center. The workshop advises students to tackle anxiety by exercising, getting enough sleep and reframing catastrophic thoughts (if my friend doesn’t text me back right away, she hates me) in more logical ways (maybe she’s studying) among other strategies.

It is one part of Ohio State’s effort to cope with the dramatic increase in the number of its 59,000 students on the Columbus campus seeking help for mental-health issues.

Ohio State has seen a 43% jump in the past five years in the number of students being treated at the university’s counseling center. At the University of Central Florida in Orlando, the increase has been about 12% each year over the past decade. At the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, demand for counseling-center services has increased by 36% in the last seven years.

Nationwide, 17% of college students were diagnosed with or treated for anxiety problems during the past year, and 13.9% were diagnosed with or treated for depression, according to a spring 2016 survey of 95,761 students by the American College Health Association. That is up from 11.6% for anxiety and 10.7% for depression in the spring 2011 survey. Counseling centers say they are also seeing more serious illnesses, including an uptick in the number of students coming to college with long psychiatric histories.

COMMENT:  I don't mean to minimize serious mental illness, and I favor swift and effective intervention.  But the sheer numbers suggest something very wrong in this society, in our parenting, in our attitudes toward children, even in our definition of mental health. 

Young people today have problems, but they don't begin to compare with the problems faced by the Depression and World War II generation.  A perceptive actress friend of mine points out that today's kids have rarely seen actual strife.  Many are indeed soft, "snowflakes" as they're called.

I think we'll be seeing more discussion on the mental condition of our young.  Many employers report that kids believe the world owes them a living.  No, it's what they owe the world that counts.  Giving a youngster a real challenge is often the most liberating experience, and the one that builds morale.  Maybe we've forgotten that.

October 11, 2016       Permalink

THERE GOES ANOTHER DEMOCRATIC CLAIM – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  Wait!  You mean the economy isn't booming?  We're not all flooded with cash?  How can that be?  Obama is in the White House.  He come to save us.  Well, it be.  From Weekly Standard:   

President Obama got a fair amount of good press a few weeks ago when it was reported that Americans' incomes had risen. But that was from 2014 to 2015. During 2016, Americans' incomes have dropped.

New figures from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey, compiled by Sentier Research, reveal that the typical American household's real (inflation-adjusted) income has taken a turn for the worse during this election year. In December 2015, the real median household income was $57,701 (in seasonally adjusted, August 2016 dollars). Eight months later, in August 2016 (the most recent tally available), that figure has dropped to $57,380. That's a decline of $321 across eight months.

Real median household income is also down since January 2000, it's down since November 2008 (the month Obama was elected), and it's down since January 2009 (the month he took office). It's up since June 2009—the last month of the Bush-Obama recession—but only by $1,191. In other words, across the 7-year "recovery," typical Americans' incomes have risen an average of just $3.20 a week.

In 2016, they haven't risen at all. If they don't start doing so before Obama leaves office, he'll fall short even of George W. Bush's 8-year performance: Under Bush, incomes rose by just $377 across 96 months (from January 2001 to January 2009). Under Obama, incomes have fallen by $102 across 91 months (from January 2009 to August 2016).

COMMENT:  Nothing to write home about.  Our economy is essentially stagnant.  The Obama administration represents a political party that has long since lost interest in the American worker.  We recall the phrase,  "the forgotten man," from the Depression.

We thought the forgotten man would be championed well by the Republican presidential candidate in this election.  Sadly, the vessel for that championing is a very flawed candidate, nominated by an antiquated system. 

Americans are losing their traditional optimism, yet we must fight that tendency.  We can get this country back on track, but I'm afraid it will be a long and bitter fight.

October 11, 2016      Permalink

DEBATE MAY HAVE HELPED TRUMP – AT 8:54 A.M. ET:  But Clinton still holds an impressive lead, and most voters are sure of their vote.  From Rasmussen:

With the first night after their latest debate being surveyed, Donald Trump has narrowed Hillary Clinton’s lead slightly in the latest White House Watch.

The daily Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds Clinton still holding a five point lead - 44% to 39% - over her Republican rival. But yesterday she had jumped to her biggest lead ever - 45% to 38% - following the release of a video showing Trump discussing women in graphic sexual detail.

Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters. This is the first survey in which one of the nights follows the Sunday night debate.

The latest survey shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson holding steady at seven percent (7%) and Green Party nominee Jill Stein still trailing with two percent (2%). Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and another four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Eighty percent (80%) of voters say they are certain how they will vote. Among these voters, Clinton still leads 49% to 45%; yesterday, she posted a 51% to 45% lead in this group of voters. Among those who say they could still change their minds between now and Election Day, it’s Clinton 43%, Trump 28%, Johnson 25% and Stein four percent (4%).

COMMENT:  It will be a tough climb for Trump.  He is now racing the clock.  The election is four weeks from today, there is only one debate left, there may be more Trump tapes out there, and some prominent Republicans have jumped ship.

But you never know.  It's the strangest election year I've seen.  If the election were held today, Clinton would win.  But the election isn't being held today.

October 11,  2016     Permalink

OCTOBER 10,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

SHE ACTUALLY GOT THIS RIGHT – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:  Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg sacked San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, flagging his national anthem protest as “dumb and disrespectful.”  The 83-year-old high court justice assailed the Niners QB and other athletes following his habit of kneeling during game-day performances of the “Star-Spangled Banner.”  “I think it’s really dumb of them,” Ginsburg told Katie Couric of Yahoo Global News, in an interview posted on Monday.  Good for Ruth.  Now watch.  Other liberals won't talk to her.

THE TWISTED ACADEMY – FROM COLLEGE FIX:   If academic quality is harmed by ideological skew, then the social sciences are a rotting carcass.  A new study of economics, history, journalism/communications, law and psychology departments at 40 “leading” U.S. universities finds that Democrats outnumber Republicans 11.5 to 1 – a gap that has widened since 2004, “and the age profile suggests that in the future they will be even higher.”  The skew is most pronounced in history (33.5:1) and journalism/communications (20:1) and least in economics (4.5:1), according to the study published in Econ Journal Watch...The widest ratio gaps: Brown University (60:1), Boston University (40:1), Rochester and Johns Hopkins (each 35:1) and Northeastern (32:1). There’s a startling gap between the top two schools in U.S. News rankings: Princeton’s ratio is 30:1, while Harvard’s is 10:1.  The most even ratio is from Pepperdine University (1.2:1), perhaps because of its affiliation with the Churches of Christ.  If your kid comes home with half an education, now you know why.

BE CAREFUL WITH THESE NUMBERS – FROM THE HILL:   Hillary Clinton has opened up a double-digit lead on Donald Trump in a new poll conducted entirely after the release of video in which the Republican nominee talks about groping women without their consent.  The Democratic nominee also eclipsed the 50-percent margin in a head-to-head matchup.  Clinton leads the GOP nominee 52 percent to 38 percent in the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted on Saturday and Sunday. In a four-way matchup, Clinton leads by 11 points, 46 percent to 35 percent, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson posting 9 percent.  During the last NBC/WSJ poll in September, Clinton led Trump by 7 points in the two-way race and 6 points in the four-way scenario.  I'd be careful with these numbers.  Please note that the poll was taken before Sunday night's debate, in which Trump did well.

October 10, 2016       Permalink

HE'S BACK – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:  We don't hear from him often, but former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev has chosen to comment on the current, abysmal state of U.S.-Russia relations.  From AFP:

Moscow (AFP) - Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev warned on Monday that the world has reached a "dangerous point" as tensions between Russia and the United States spike over the Syria conflict.

Relations between Moscow and Washington -- already at their lowest since the Cold War over the Ukraine conflict -- have soured further in recent days as the United States pulled the plug on Syria talks and accused Russia of hacking attacks.

The Kremlin has suspended a series of nuclear pacts, including a symbolic cooperation deal to cut stocks of weapons-grade plutonium.

"I think the world has reached a dangerous point," Gorbachev, 85, told state news agency RIA Novosti.

"I don't want to give any concrete prescriptions but I do want to say that this needs to stop. We need to renew dialogue. Stopping it was the biggest mistake."

As the last leader of the Soviet Union, Gorbachev oversaw an easing of decades of tensions with the West that helped to end the Cold War.

He signed several landmark nuclear disarmament deals with Washington aimed at defusing the standoff between the two superpowers.

COMMENT:  Putin is a bully, and you don't deal with a bully by showing weakness, which is exactly what Obama has done.

It's no comfort to say that the fault lies with Russia.  How we respond to Russia's actions will decide whether Russia wins.

October 10, 2016       Permalink

AMERICAN SHIP TARGETED – AT 9:54 A.M. ET:  While we watched a debate, there was frightening military action in the Mideast.  From Reuters: 

A U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer was targeted on Sunday in a failed missile attack from territory in Yemen controlled by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, a U.S. military spokesman told Reuters, saying neither of the two missiles hit the ship.

The attempted strike on the USS Mason, which was first reported by Reuters, came just a week after a United Arab Emirates vessel came under attack from Houthis and suggests growing risks to the U.S. military from Yemen's conflict.

The U.S. government, which has become increasingly vocal about civilian casualties in the war, this weekend announced a review of its support to a Saudi Arabia-led coalition battling the Houthis after a strike on mourners in the capital Sanaa that killed up to 140 people.

The failed missile attack on the USS Mason began around 7 p.m. local time, when the ship detected two inbound missiles over a 60-minute period in the Red Sea off Yemen's coast, the U.S. military said.

"Both missiles impacted the water before reaching the ship," Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis said. "There were no injuries to our sailors and no damage to the ship."

Saudi Arabia and the United States blame Shi'ite Iran for supplying weapons to the Houthis. Tehran views the Houthis, who are from a Shi'ite sect, as the legitimate authority in Yemen but denies it supplies them with weapons.

A U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the first missile triggered counter-measures from the USS Mason. It was not immediately clear whether those defenses may have helped prevent a direct hit on the ship.

COMMENT:  Had a missile hit the ship, we'd have had a very different story to tell this morning, and Field Marshal for the Next Three Months Barack Obama might actually have had to do something.  The fact that the missiles were fired at all from Iranian-backed forces is ominous enough.

October 10, 2016       Permalink

AFTERMATH – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  Trump won the debate.  I'm not judging that by snap polls, but by the body language of the two sides and their handlers after the debate, and by the results of the Frank Luntz focus group.  From RealClearPolitics: 

Focus group attendees described Trump's performance as "much improved," "calm and strong," "more presidential," and "more researched."

They described Hillary Clinton's performance as "disingenuous," "not worthy of my vote," same-old," "typical," and "frustrated."

Focus Group: Who are you willing to vote for?

BEFORE #DEBATE
• Hillary: 8
• Trump: 9

AFTER DEBATE
• Hillary: 4
• Trump: 18

COMMENT:  Clinton really has nothing to say because she has no real record of accomplishment.  She is the classic "ticket puncher," who's punched her ticket while going up the ladder, with nothing much on the ticket. 

But will the debate matter?  Trump went into the debate a wounded candidate.  He came out a debate winner, but the baggage – the image of him as a low-life – is still there.  He has only a month to catch up and win, and it's a very tall order.

One thing is clear, though:  Hillary Clinton might emerge as president, but no honest person will call her a winner.

October 10,  2016     Permalink